And so the big balagāns
(slighty tawdry carnival) of the
extraordinary Saeima elections is over and the outcome is much as
could be expected. The only thing that did not happen is that Harmony
Center (SC) didn't get the big gain in seats that some pollsters
predicted, and that would have allowed it to make a coalition wih the
severely depleted Green and Farmers' Union (ZZS) of the “oligarch”
Aivars Lembergs. The SC, which has been called both “ pro-Russian”
and “social democratic”, gained only two seats for a total of 31.
The ZZS was cut down to 13 seats in the Saeima, but with the SC
failing to make the gains that some had predicted for it, there is no
way that the two of them together can make the populist,
corruption-tolerant coalition that would have been possible if the
list led by Riga mayor Nils Ušakovs had gained at least 38 seats
(for a bare majority together with ZZS).
What
is possible now is a number of unstable coalitions. One is to put
together 51 seats with prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis' Unity (V)
and SC, which would need a good reason for excluding the Zatlers'
Reform Party (ZRP). It would also put the strongest member, SC, in a
technically dominant role against the more politically experienced,
but “defeated” V. A strong coalition in terms of numbers would
put the top three winners together and gather 73 seats, making it
possible to pass almost any “reforms”, including changes to the
constitution (Satversme).
In
such a coalition, the two centrist-liberal parties with 42 votes
among them would be dominant, though perhaps as a two-headed alpha
dog. If one “discounts” the SC, then the ZRP has good reason to
consider itself the real “winner” of the election, having come
from nothing to 22 seats in the Saeima, ahead of V with its depleted
20 seats. Vienotība, itself an amalgam of three parties, can still
consider itself most experienced at government (which ZRP is not),
and besides, ZRP is just an accidental clone of itself, isn't it?
Seeing things that way, the real winner is the center-liberal block,
the unintentional seeming twins V and ZRP, with 42 votes, just a few
short of a majority.
That
is where the Nationalist Alliance (NA) with is long title of All for
Latvia!-For Fatherland & Freedom/Latvian National Independence
Movement could fit very nicely to make a government backed by 56
votes in the Saeima. There is just one problem – the NA knows they
are the keystone that holds together the edifice of a “non-Russian”
and nominally non-leftist (the NA actually supports protectionism and
state ownership, but nevermind...). This gives the nationalists undue
leverage, which would be problematic enough if the NA could keep some
of its loose cannon from rolling around the deck and firing at the
wrong time.
For a
while it looked like one of the cannon, a young lawyer named Jānis
Iesalnieks, had been lashed down after stating in social media that
multiculturalism in Norway was really to blame for the bombing and
massacre staged in July by Anders Breivik. Iesalnieks agreed not to
run for the Saeima on the NA ticket, something he and All for Latvia
(VL) had intended. But just after the election, Iesalnieks resurfaced
and engaged SC's candidate for prime minister, Riga mayor Nils
Ušakovs, in a duel on Twitter, saying that most of the people who
voted for SC (as Latvian citizens) were really an illegitimate
colonial population. Ušakovs wrote to VL's leader Raivis Dzintars,
who was elected to the new Saeima, demanding an explanation. Dzintars
responded that Iesalnieks arguments, based on the Geneva Convention
articles about settlers in occupied territories were sound, but that
VL and the NA did not support acrimony between the Latvians and
Russians on an everyday level. This was a position that could
effectively exclude the NA from any coalition with V and the ZRP,
especially as the latter has said one of its purposes was to bridge
the ethnic rift in Latvian society.
While
the NA is unyielding in its hard-line position, the SC has apparently
show readiness to retreat from its contrarian, populist or as some
politely called it – social democratic policies. In order to join a
possible grand coalition, the SC has indicated it will go along with
a 2012 budget deficit that will get Latvia into the eurozone under
the Maastricht criteria in 2014. It also has, by implication, backed
off from suggesting that it wants to extend repayment (by refinancing
on the market) of Latvia's loans from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) and other lenders. Ušakovs also made a low-key concession over
the weekend, telling a conference that he considered Latvia to have
been an occupied country during the Soviet era, but that no one today
should be considered an occupier (Latvians use the term okupants
or “occupant” – the biggest single addressee for junk mail in
the US until /not-so/ sophisticated computer mailing systems
personalized each letter). If you ask me, you will see cows dancing
ballet on their hind legs by the Freedom Monument in Riga before Nils
Ušakovs statement on “occupation” gets the NA to join any
government with the SC in it. The reason for this was more likely to
make a gesture toward the ZRP and V, who are also sensitive to anyone
treating 50 years of totalitarian rule as some kind of mistake in
international affairs or an “annexation” agreed to by a
government in 1940 terrified by thousands of Soviet tanks and
soldiers at (and to a great deal, within) its borders.
Having
said that, the quick retreat from apparent “principles” (pasted
to the backs of half of the busses in Riga) does not bode well for
the SC as a reliable partner to the ZRP and V. Shapeshifters never
are. As one former Riga hand said recently over a beer while visiting
town, it's all about getting into power for the SC, never about any
principles. That makes it a very much “Latvian” and old-style
party, much like the sordidly defeated ZZS.
Oh yes
– Vienotība and the ZRP are already kicking each other under the
table while still trying to smile, because ZRP apparently went to a
meeting with the SC without taking its slightly smaller twin along.
And already during election eve, a carrot-topped iron lady from V was
ranting that Zatlers was a liar because he had extended feelers to
the SC even as the ballot boxes were being being sealed and taken
away to be counted and exit polls were hitting the newswires showing
who would be boss.
A
merry few weeks are ahead for all. Book your Ryanair seats now
for the opening of parliament (air Baltic may well have gone
to the dogs by then, the government may just dump it on the
mysterious minority shareholders rather than put up to LVL 60
million, maybe more, into a rathole in the skies).
